000816Strange bedfellows: Nigeria cozies up to Belgrade
In recent weeks, the government of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has enlisted an unusual string of world governments to condemn his country's punishment under international sanctions; from the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to the government in Jakarta.But an unusual visitor, even by these standards, turned up in Belgrade on Aug. 9, according to Tanjug, the official Yugoslav news agency. Nigerian Armed Forces Chief Abdulsalami Abubakar visited Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade. At the meeting, Abubakar condemned international hegemony and agreed to develop long-term cooperation with the Milosevic regime.
Nigeria is apparently positioning itself to mediate between the West and Milosevic. As a mediator on a perennially thorny issue, Nigeria can strengthen its own international position and pragmatically bolster its own negotiating position with Western lenders. But making bold declarations like condemning hegemony are risky maneuvers that can backfire with Abuja's most important supporter – the United States.
Over the last 18 months, the Nigerian government has worked to build ties to Western governments and attract Western investment. Though a former military leader himself, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo has moved to purge military and political opponents on charges of corruption, and promised to comply with international lending requirements. The president has also traveled to Europe and the United States asking for aid, investment and forgiveness of debt. Nigeria owes $30 billion in foreign debts.
In response, Washington promised to help Nigeria's economic initiatives. In reality, though, the Clinton administration has done little. So far, the United States has committed less than $90 million toward economic development. When the Obasanjo government asked for debt forgiveness, the administration offered to reschedule the debt instead. Nigeria currently spends $3.5 billion annually in debt servicing.
As the sixth largest supplier of oil to the United States, Nigeria expects more support from Washington. Simply selling oil, however, hasn't given the Obasanjo government much leverage. So, Nigeria adopted a new role, acting as policeman in the region by sending troops to conflicts throughout Western Africa, as well as offering to dispatch forces to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The government in Abuja now appears to be auditioning for another role: that of mediator. Opening ties with Milosevic can improve Nigeria's international standing and boost leverage with international and foreign lenders. In Yugoslavia, the United States finds itself in an uncompromising position. Unable to simply withdraw from the Balkans, the United States has begun to seek an acceptable exit strategy. Meanwhile, Washington's declared enemy, Milosevic, remains securely in power.
Several nations are vying for this role. Most recently, South Africa invited Yugoslavia's foreign minister to Pretoria in June. The two discussed the presence of international forces in Kosovo and agreed to cooperate on international relations. Although not much else came from the meeting, South Africa's attempt illustrates the importance Washington places on resolving the issue.
Nigeria's willingness to condemn the NATO campaign underscores that the Obasanjo government is willing to challenge the West. But there are pitfalls to this relationship. Nigeria and Yugoslavia have few strategic interests that coincide. And acting as mediator will require the Obasanjo government to strike a delicate balance between its allies in Washington and its contacts in Belgrade.
More importantly, Milosevic likely knows that Abubakar's visit would have received at the very least tacit approval from Washington. As a member of the Nigerian Council of State, the body comprising former heads of state and regional governors who advise the president, Abubakar isn't likely to act independently of Nigerian foreign policy. The trip to Yugoslavia was likely meant to help lay the groundwork for discussions with President Clinton, who is to visit Nigeria later this month.